Simulation & Risk Analysis

BMAN73942 Simulation & Risk Analysis 15 Semester 2 Postgraduate Taught Level 7 Nathan Proudlove Unit coordinator 1 FHEQ level (Framework for Higher Education Qualifications) ' Masters/Integrated Masters P4 ' European Credit Transfer & Accumulation System Rating : 7.5 The unit provides an overview of simulation techniques and, in particular, their use in supporting risk analysis and flow management in systems that are sufficiently complex to limit the applicability of other modelling approaches. In particular, the unit covers and contrasts three of the main Operational Research simulation concepts and approaches: Monte Carlo Simulation, Discrete Event Simulation and System Dynamics. The unit also introduces Markov Chain Analysis and basic Queuing Theory models, and discusses the use of these mathematical approaches as a means of complementing and / or informing simulation. There is a focus on practical modelling work and students are introduced to a range of suitable software packages.    The unit provides an overview of simulation techniques and, in particular, their use in supporting risk analysis and flow management in systems that are sufficiently complex to limit the applicability of other modelling approaches. In particular, the unit covers and contrasts three of the main Operational Research simulation concepts and approaches: Monte Carlo Simulation, Discrete Event Simulation and System Dynamics. The unit also introduces Markov Chain Analysis and basic Queuing Theory models, and discusses the use of these mathematical approaches as a means of complementing and / or informing simulation. There is a focus on practical modelling work and students are introduced to a range of suitable software packages.   Analysing systems dominated by randomness and/or interactions between their constituent elements is particularly challenging. Problems of this type include operational risk analysis, revenue management and improving operational process flow in service or manufacturing. This unit will focus on application of approaches developed to model such systems, including the basics of queuing theory, Markov processes and (in particular) computer-based simulation.  • Familiarity with the concepts and types of tools and techniques commonly used in analysing the performance of and risk in complex operational systems. • Experience in considering different approaches and their assumptions, advantages and disadvantages. • Ability to formulate, use and understand models of problem situations including, where appropriate, state-of-the-art software tools.    Formal Contact MethodsMinimum Contact hours: 20 Delivery format: Lecture and Workshops  0 Other 100% Summative assessment:Group coursework project (50%) Examination (50%)Formative assessment: Team Presentation    • Informal advice and discussion in contact sessions. • Online discussion board. • Written and/or verbal comments on formative & summative work   BMAN73942 Programme Req: BMAN73942 is only available as an elective to students on MSc Business Analytics and MSc Data Science (Business and Mgmt pathway)BMAN73942 is only available as an elective to students on MSc Business Analytics, and MSc Data Science (Business and Management pathway) N Core texts: Pidd, M. (2009), Tools for thinking (3rd ed), John Wiley & Sons, Chichester. (Available online via library; also 1996 & 2003 editions) Robinson S (2014). Simulation: The practice of model development and use 2nd ed. Palgrave Macmillan: Basingstoke, UK (Available online via library: 1st ed 2004) Hillier, F. and Lieberman, G.J. (2021), Introduction to operations research (11th ed), McGraw-Hill Education. (Available online via library)Supplementary reading: Pidd, M. (1998). Computer simulation in Management Science (4th ed), Wiley. Savage, S.L. (2009), The Flaw of Averages, John Wiley & Sons. (Available via library) Holweg M, Davies J, de Mayer A, Lawson B and Schmenner RW (2018). Process theory: The principles of operations management. Oxford University Press: Oxford. (Available online via library.) Slack N, Brandon-Jones A and Burgess N(2022). Operations management (10th ed.) Pearson Education: Harlow. (Available online via library.) Additional background references may be listed with the material for the sessions - these are for interest and to provide more depth for interested students.   Assessment written exam 1.5 Lectures 20 Seminars 10 0 118.5 Informal Contact Methods •    Office Hours •    Online Discussion Board