Climate and Energy: Past, Present and Future

EART36002 Climate and Energy: Past, Present and Future 10 Semester 2 Undergraduate Level 6 Martin Gallagher Unit coordinator 1 FHEQ level (Framework for Higher Education Qualifications) ' Middle part of Bachelors ' European Credit Transfer & Accumulation System Rating : 5.0 This course conveys  a fundamental understanding of climate change processes to provide evidence of anthropogenic induced changes in context with past (1MYA) natural carbon cycles. the importance of human energy use and its effects on climate, in the recent past and in the future. It ranges from providing knowledge of detailed understanding of key climate feedback processes, such as aerosol-cloud feedback mechanisms and greenhouse gas radiative effects, to calculating greenhouse gas induced temperature changes in planetary atmospheres using simple, modified Grey Atmosphere models. These will be used to introduce the student to the concept of radiative forcing due to different factors. Internal natural as well as external climate forcing factors including volcanic emissions using simple aerosol scattering models are also covered to understand the 1st order aerosol-cloud feedback mechanisms and the Twomey effect. natural cycles influence climate are also discussed using examples such as ENSO and ocean thermohaline circulations. External factors such as the Milankovitch cycles and Solar variability are also used to provide evidence for the current climate change trends. References to historical impacts on societal behaviour such as mass migration and communication of climate and weather extreme related phenomena are provided to place modern behaviour in context.<div>  Finally global emission scenarios and assumptions are assessed using simple estimates of global population prediction and fossil fuel lifetime calculations based on knowledge of existing resources and expected energy use. Future available energy sources are discussed and estimated by summarising knowledge of the various energy flow components in the Earth’s planetary system and using these as top down estimates that could be accessed by renewable energy systems, such as solar thermal, solar photovoltaic, wind energy, hydroelectricity and wind farms.Themes covered will include:-Introduction to Earth’s Climate – Then & Now -The state of the atmosphere over the last 800,000 years, past CO2 and greenhouse gas levels, proxies for past temperature The CO2 Pump Handle -The rapidly changing state of the atmosphere since the industrial revolution -Simple models of radiative transfer, absorption and scattering in the atmosphere by gas molecules and aerosols -Scattering of radiation by clouds -Planetary albedo -The Grey model of the atmosphere -The global radiative budget and factors that control it -A simple aerosol model, including single scattering albedo and aerosol optical depth concepts -Basic cloud processes, cloud optical depth and effective radius, and how these depend on macro and microscale processes -The Twomey 1st aerosol-cloud indirect effect, calculations using field observationsns. -Why aerosol cloud interactions represent the largest uncertainty in climate models -Basic links between the atmosphere and ocean circulations, ENSO El Nino and L Nina – can these be influenced by climate warming? -Climate Change Evidence - a review of the IPCC Assessment Reports on Climate Change -Man’s Use of Energy and Population Prediction for the end of the century -Energy resources & Reserves – Calculating fossil fuel lifetimes -Alternative Energy Sources – Renewables – can they fill the gap? Implications for society. -In conclusion: “Is the surface of planet Earth a suitable place for an evolving Technological civilisation” The future of Planet Earth – what are the possible Geo-engineering approaches of decarbonisation is not viable. Should we geo-engineer (further) the planet? Or should we consider more radical solution? </div>  This course conveys  a fundamental understanding of climate change processes to provide evidence of anthropogenic induced changes in context with past (1MYA) natural carbon cycles. the importance of human energy use and its effects on climate, in the recent past and in the future. It ranges from providing knowledge of detailed understanding of key climate feedback processes, such as aerosol-cloud feedback mechanisms and greenhouse gas radiative effects, to calculating greenhouse gas induced temperature changes in planetary atmospheres using simple, modified Grey Atmosphere models. These will be used to introduce the student to the concept of radiative forcing due to different factors. Internal natural as well as external climate forcing factors including volcanic emissions using simple aerosol scattering models are also covered to understand the 1st order aerosol-cloud feedback mechanisms and the Twomey effect. natural cycles influence climate are also discussed using examples such as ENSO and ocean thermohaline circulations. External factors such as the Milankovitch cycles and Solar variability are also used to provide evidence for the current climate change trends. References to historical impacts on societal behaviour such as mass migration and communication of climate and weather extreme related phenomena are provided to place modern behaviour in context.<div>  Finally global emission scenarios and assumptions are assessed using simple estimates of global population prediction and fossil fuel lifetime calculations based on knowledge of existing resources and expected energy use. Future available energy sources are discussed and estimated by summarising knowledge of the various energy flow components in the Earth’s planetary system and using these as top down estimates that could be accessed by renewable energy systems, such as solar thermal, solar photovoltaic, wind energy, hydroelectricity and wind farms.Themes covered will include:-Introduction to Earth’s Climate – Then & Now -The state of the atmosphere over the last 800,000 years, past CO2 and greenhouse gas levels, proxies for past temperature The CO2 Pump Handle -The rapidly changing state of the atmosphere since the industrial revolution -Simple models of radiative transfer, absorption and scattering in the atmosphere by gas molecules and aerosols -Scattering of radiation by clouds -Planetary albedo -The Grey model of the atmosphere -The global radiative budget and factors that control it -A simple aerosol model, including single scattering albedo and aerosol optical depth concepts -Basic cloud processes, cloud optical depth and effective radius, and how these depend on macro and microscale processes -The Twomey 1st aerosol-cloud indirect effect, calculations using field observationsns. -Why aerosol cloud interactions represent the largest uncertainty in climate models -Basic links between the atmosphere and ocean circulations, ENSO El Nino and L Nina – can these be influenced by climate warming? -Climate Change Evidence - a review of the IPCC Assessment Reports on Climate Change -Man’s Use of Energy and Population Prediction for the end of the century -Energy resources & Reserves – Calculating fossil fuel lifetimes -Alternative Energy Sources – Renewables – can they fill the gap? Implications for society. -In conclusion: “Is the surface of planet Earth a suitable place for an evolving Technological civilisation” The future of Planet Earth – what are the possible Geo-engineering approaches of decarbonisation is not viable. Should we geo-engineer (further) the planet? Or should we consider more radical solution? </div>  <div> The aim of this course is to provide students with a deeper understanding of the processes controlling climate.The unit aims to educate students in being able to debate climate change using evidence from the geological and astronomical fields.At the same time the unit aims to deliver more detailed understanding of fundamental atmospheric processes including derivation of basic models of radiative transfer and aerosol direct and aerosol-cloud indirect effects and ocean circulation processes. This will be placed in the context of global wind nd ocean cycles.Anthropogenic effects on climate are also placed within historical context comparing atmospheric conditions from recent geological periods with pre-industrial revolution and modern times and the contributions of different feedback processes to the observed changes discussed.Various lines of evidence will be discussed and analysed by comparing past natural climate variability and the mechanisms responsible (including Milankovitch and Solar Variability cycles), with known internal and external forcing agents including greenhouse gas radiative effects. Evidence will also extend to summarising the basic impacts of climate warming including extreme weather.The second part of the course looks at man’s use of energy. As this is a rapidly developing subject we use a top down approach to the analysis of ultimate global energy requirements based on how to calculate lifetimes of fossil fuels and predicted population change and expected energy usage to estimate what man’s energy needs will be by 2100 and whether current resources can fulfil energy needs.The student will complete the course with an understanding of the various energy sources available from fossil fuels to solar. They will be able to calculate the lifetimes of non-renewable fossil fuel resources, how to calculated energy densities associated with solar and wind energy farms, and how contributions from these sources will change society over the next century. This will be placed in the context of a planet that must respond to anticipate equitable standards of living for a growing population. Mitigation and sustainability strategies will be briefly discussed with respect to the IPCC 1.5C report.</div>  <table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"> <tbody> <tr> <td colspan="2" style="width:496px;"> On the successful completion of the course, students will be able to: </td> <td style="width:72px;"> Developed</td> <td style="width:66px;"> Assessed</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width:64px;height:79px;"> ILO 1</td> <td style="width:432px;height:79px;"> To understand the concept of Black body equilibrium temperature, the Stefan-Boltzman Law and how to use this law calculate the equilibrium temperature for the Earth & other Planets and why they differ.</td> <td style="width:72px;height:79px;"> X</td> <td style="width:66px;height:79px;"> X</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width:64px;height:67px;"> ILO 2</td> <td style="width:432px;height:67px;"> To understand the main components of the Earth’s energy budget and how internal and external forcings can influence them and the timescales associated with these changes.</td> <td style="width:72px;height:67px;"> X</td> <td style="width:66px;height:67px;"> X</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width:64px;height:76px;"> ILO 3</td> <td style="width:432px;height:76px;"> To understand the role of feedback processes on the climate system.</td> <td style="width:72px;height:76px;"> X</td> <td style="width:66px;height:76px;"> X</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width:64px;height:66px;"> ILO 4</td> <td style="width:432px;height:66px;"> To understand the concept of radiative forcing.</td> <td style="width:72px;height:66px;"> X</td> <td style="width:66px;height:66px;"> X</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width:64px;height:66px;"> ILO 5</td> <td style="width:432px;height:66px;"> To discuss the importance of international agreements and political on mitigating future climate change.</td> <td style="width:72px;height:66px;"> X</td> <td style="width:66px;height:66px;"> X</td> </tr> </tbody></table>  <div> Syllabus (note: there are two 1 hour lectures per week):Week 1: Composition of the atmosphere and the atmospheric energy balance. Sun-Earth radiation balance and Milankovitch cyclesWeek 2: Radiative balance in the atmosphereWeek 3: Energy flow in the biosphere, atmosphere and oceanWeek 4: A simple climate model, a simple aerosol model. Earth vs Venus climatologyWeek 5: Climatology of the EarthWeek 6: Circulation of the oceans and the atmosphere - ENSOWeek 7: Evidence for natural and anthropogenic climate change - IPCCWeek 8: The pattern of energy consumption now and in the future. Calculating the lifetime of fossil fuels.Week 9: Future climate change predictions; emissions reductions and their impact on future energy consumption.Week 10: Contribution of alternative/renewable energy and nuclear resources to fill the energy gap. An all electric economy.Week 11. Decarbonisation – can we (further) Geo-engineer the climate? Should we do it? Energy efficiency. Where do we go from here? The O’Neil solution.Week 12 & 13:  Tutorial lectures. The final two lectures will cover problem solving based on past examination questions. Students are encouraged to contact the lecturer after this week to discuss solutions to these problems either by email or by arranging a personal/group student- guided revision lecture based on past examination questions and questions raised following lectures and background reading.</div>  <div> Learning during this course unit builds from one lecture to the next, consisting of 2 lectures per week for 11 weeks over semester 1 (22 hours in total). These provide context and ideas with practical examples needed to complete the 11/2 hour final examination. Two hours of student-guided revision lectures are provided together with optional student guided examination problem solving tutorials which will summarize key content from the syllabus. For effective learning, it is advisable that students attend every lecture and practical class, and revise the previous week's materials between lectures. For Physics students taking this option experience has taught us that one lecture per week together with revision using the on-line podcasts is sufficient to complete the main learning outcomes. Formative problem-solving questions will be covered in the tutorial lectures for students to work on in their own time and to bring to personal tutorials (optional) if required. The lecturer will be available to provide feedback on these via BlackBoard and personal email. The answers to questions will be given on BlackBoard and feedback from these will also be placed on BlackBoard to gauge progress in understanding, applying the course content and overcoming any problems using different approaches. general communication outside of lectures will be via Blackboard announcements and e-mail as required. The assessment of the course will consist of a 11/2 hour summative exam at the end of Semester 1 with students being required to answer 2 questions from 4, one of which will be a summative-essay question. For postgraduate students requiring units to complete DTP requirements (5 credit option) this will be assessed by an essay requiring additional background reading. Students are encouraged to utilise the wide variety of learning resources that are available in this subject area. This includes signposting (links) to publicly-available informal contextual resources (e.g. NOAA & NASA videos, Wikipedia, Climate News Articles), directed reading, and podcasts listed on the Blackboard site. Formative individual feedback on tutorial answers and past examination questions. Further feedback will be provided on the example questions set in lectures. Feedback on exam performance will be provided via a drop-in session early in semester 2 for students to view their marked exam scripts as required. The course is delivered through 22 standard lectures and 2 tutorial-revision/discussion lectures using past examination problems as examples for problem solving and derivations. Personal or group tutorials are available subsequently on request. Discussion via BlackBoard noticeboard of specific problems and topics is encouraged and anonymysed questions surrounding common problems and concepts highlighted with solutions can be provided by BlackBoard NoticeBoard. Climate change updates using scientific and news websites are provided – both links and summary articles are available via BlackBoard.</div>  1 Written exam 100% <table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="0"> <tbody> <tr> <td style="width:102px;height:68px;"> Assessment type</td> <td style="width:85px;height:68px;"> % Weighting within unit</td> <td style="width:66px;height:68px;"> Hand out and hand in dates</td> <td style="width:94px;height:68px;"> Length </td> <td style="width:170px;height:68px;"> How, when and what feedback is provided</td> <td style="width:123px;height:68px;"> ILO tested</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width:102px;height:101px;"> Exam </td> <td style="width:85px;height:101px;"> 100</td> <td style="width:66px;height:101px;">  </td> <td style="width:94px;height:101px;"> 2 hours</td> <td style="width:170px;height:101px;"> Personal tutorial/group tutorials  and BlackBoard feedback on past examination papers. Feedback via drop-in sessions to view problem attempts & review of tutorials via feedback on noticeboard.</td> <td style="width:123px;height:101px;"> All</td> </tr> </tbody></table>  <table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="0"> <tbody> <tr> <td style="width:204px;"> Pre-requisite units</td> <td style="width:437px;"> Physics Students: None</td> </tr> <tr> <td style="width:204px;"> Co-requisite units</td> <td style="width:437px;"> None</td> </tr> </tbody></table>  BSc (Hons) Earth and Plan Scie BSc (Hons) Earth (Geology) Third Year Optional BSc (Hons) Earth and Plan Scie BSc (Hons) Earth (Resources) Third Year Optional BSc (Hons) Earth and Plan Scie BSc(Hons)Earth&Plan Sci-Palaeo Third Year Optional MEarthSci (Hons) Ea and Pl Sci MEarthSci (Hons) Earth (Geolo) Third Year Optional MEarthSci (Hons) Ea and Pl Sci MEarthSci (Hons) Earth (Resou) Third Year Optional MEarthSci (Hons) Ea and Pl Sci MEarthSci (Hons) Earth (Palae) Third Year Optional MEarthSci (Hons) Earth Industr MEarthSci EPS Yr Industry (ER) Third Year Optional MEarthSci (Hons) Earth Abroad MEarthSci EPS Abroad (ER) Third Year Optional MEarthSci (Hons) Earth Abroad MEarthSci EPS Yr Abroad (Pala) Third Year Optional BSc (Hons) Environmental Sci BSc(Hons) Envir Science (ACS) Third Year Mandatory MEnvSci Environmental Science MEnvSci Environ Science (ACS) Third Year Mandatory MEnvSci Env Sci with Ind Exp MEnvSci Env Sci with IE (ACS) Third Year Mandatory MEnvSci Env Sci with Int Study MEnvSci Env Sci with IS (ACS) Third Year Mandatory MEarthSci (Hons) EPS with Res MEarthSci (H) EPS (ER) with Re Third Year Optional MEarthSci (Hons) EPS with Res MEaSc (H) EPS (Paleo) with Res Third Year Optional MEnvSci (Hons) Env Sci w Resea MEnSc (H) Env Sci w RP (ACS) Third Year Mandatory 1: IPCC, 2021: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Masson-Delmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. In Press.2: IPCC AR5 Climate Change 2014 Synthesis Report. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/ (to be updated to AR6 in April 2021)3: IPCC AR5 Climate Change 2013 The Physical Science Basis. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/4. IPCC Special Report Global Warming of 1.5 ºC John H. Seinfeld, Spyros N. Pandis; Atmospheric Chemistry & Physics: From Air Pollution to Climate Change. 3rd Edition, 2016. Wiley Interscience.5. John Houghton; Global Warming - The Complete Briefing - 5th Edition; Cambridge University Press, 2015.6. Sustainable Energy: Choosing Options. by Tester, J.W. et al. 2005, MIT Press.Earth System Science:7. Sustainable Energy - without the hot air. D.J.C. MacKay. 2008. Available free online at : http://www.withouthotair.com/download.html. Video material at: http://www.withouthotair.com/Videos.html8. Mark. Z. Jacobson. Atmospheric Pollution: History, Science, and Regulation, 2002. ISBN-13: 978-0521010443.9. Royal Society Climate Briefings_ 2019. https://royalsociety.org/topics-policy/projects/royal-society-climate-change-briefings/?gclid=Cj0KCQiAip-PBhDVARIsAPP2xc1vI9qscEuXbQ-m_ukgwRoNBhyRnxi4gPNEkHes5o9UEW2w6FUDh0IaAjhSEALw_wcB Other Reading A BRIGHT FUTURE: HOW SOME COUNTRIES HAVE SOLVED CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE REST CAN FOLLOW By JOSHUA S. GOLDSTEIN & STAFFAN A. QVIST. I have provided a "Karnkraft" Summary of this text book in Powerpoint form on BlackBoard.  0 0 100 <figure class="table"><table border="1" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" width="0"><tbody><tr><td style="height:68px;width:139px;"> </td><td style="height:68px;width:85px;">Type</td><td style="height:9.75pt;padding:0cm;width:169.5pt;" width="226">Example student activity</td><td style="height:68px;width:75px;">Total Hours</td><td style="height:68px;width:160px;">New material</td><td style="height:68px;width:104px;">Consolidation and Practice</td></tr><tr><td style="height:39px;width:139px;">Contact time (students are in front of staff)</td><td style="height:39px;width:85px;">Lecture (new material)</td><td style="height:39px;width:75px;">Mostly listening & taking notes (mostly new material)</td><td style="height:39px;width:75px;">22</td><td style="height:39px;width:160px;">22</td><td style="height:39px;width:104px;"> </td></tr><tr><td> </td><td>Lecture (revision/examples)</td><td>Mostly listening & taking notes (no new material- revision of course)</td><td>2</td><td> </td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td style="height:101px;width:139px;"> </td><td style="height:101px;width:85px;">Practical (new material and practice. Typically 25-50% of practical time is spent on new material)</td><td style="height:101px;width:75px;">Interactive individual or group work (problem solving, experiments, watching demonstrations, describing and interpreting samples, paper-based exercises, computer-based exercises)</td><td style="height:101px;width:75px;"> </td><td style="height:101px;width:160px;"> </td><td style="height:101px;width:104px;"> </td></tr><tr><td style="height:101px;width:139px;"> </td><td style="height:101px;width:85px;">Tutorial</td><td style="height:101px;width:75px;">Interactive small group work</td><td style="height:101px;width:75px;"> </td><td style="height:101px;width:160px;"> </td><td style="height:101px;width:104px;"> </td></tr><tr><td> </td><td>Seminar/examples class</td><td>Working on and discussing questions </td><td>2</td><td> </td><td>2</td></tr><tr><td>Independent study time</td><td style="height:9.75pt;padding:0cm;width:131.5pt;" width="175">Pre/post lecture work</td><td>Reading own notes, re-solving examples, prep work, revisit podcast</td><td>20</td><td> </td><td>20</td></tr><tr><td> </td><td>Pre/post practical work/write up</td><td>Complete practical work, prep work, reading feedback</td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr><tr><td> </td><td>Studio/workshop time</td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td><td> </td></tr></tbody></table></figure>