Demographic Forecasting

SOST70063 Demographic Forecasting 20 Postgraduate Taught Level 7 Tina Hannemann Unit coordinator Arkadiusz Wisniowski Unit coordinator 1 FHEQ level (Framework for Higher Education Qualifications) ' Masters/Integrated Masters P4 ' European Credit Transfer & Accumulation System Rating : 10.0  This unit aims to provide students with the skills necessary to derive, interpret, and apply a range of demographic measures to past and present populations at various levels of geography. The unit will develop students’ ability to critically appraise accuracy and quality of various measures in the light of available data sources. The unit will make use of real data and focus on applying appropriate methods and critically interpreting outcomes such as those of the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK and other countries. Various measures of estimating and forecasting mortality will be emphasised as well other components of population change.   This unit aims to provide students with the skills necessary to derive, interpret, and apply a range of demographic measures to past and present populations at various levels of geography. The unit will develop students’ ability to critically appraise accuracy and quality of various measures in the light of available data sources. The unit will make use of real data and focus on applying appropriate methods and critically interpreting outcomes such as those of the COVID-19 pandemic in the UK and other countries. Various measures of estimating and forecasting mortality will be emphasised as well other components of population change.  The unit aims to: Provide students with knowledge and skills necessary to investigate and analyse population structure and forecast population change.  · Understand key concepts, theories, and measures related to population change and population components;  · Select, summarise, and evaluate different statistical methodologies and take appropriate decisions regarding the measurement and forecasting of population change Produce a range of demographic measures with statistical techniques using software • Apply appropriate methods on real world data in various contexts;  • Formulate, organise, express, and communicate data-driven opinions about demographic change   The course unit will consist of asynchronous videos, interactive activities, and online guided readings. In addition, there will be frequent synchronous sessions such as seminars and tutorials. The students will practice their oral skills as well as their understanding of the content by creating a short presentation which will be assessed. A mid-term test will cover the main concepts taught in the first half of the course and formative feedback will be provided. The test will form a consolidating basis for the preparation of the summative final essay which will evaluate overall comprehension and ability to apply theoretical knowledge to real-world problems. Students will also practice their presentation skills as part of a second summative assignment. Students will also be provided with additional materials such as assigned readings, video demonstrations, and various other individual and group activities, to supplement their learning.  0 Other 100% Test  (10 questions, mix of closed and open-ended answers, non-assessed) Essay- supported by visualisations and reproducible computer code/ notebook (2500 words + visualisations + reproducible code 70%) Video Presentation (10-minute if group work, maximum 15-minute presentation if individual presentation 30%)  Automatic online feedback on non-assessed test. Online feedback within 15 working days on assessed work.   N Bryant, J. and Zhang, J. L. (2018). Bayesian Demographic Estimation and Forecasting. Boca Raton: CRC Press.  De Haas, H., Castles, S. and Miller, M. J. (2020). 6th edition. The Age of Migration: International Population Movements in the Modern World. New York: The Guildford Press.  Preston, S., Heuveline, P., & Guillot, M. (2000). Demography: Measuring and Modelling Population Processes. Oxford: Blackwell Publishers.  Rowland, D. T. (2003). Demographic Methods and Concepts. Oxford: Oxford University Press. For Information and advice on Link2Lists reading list software, see: <a href="http://www.library.manchester.ac.uk/academicsupport/informationandadviceonlink2listsreadinglistsoftware/" rel="noreferrer noopener" target="_blank">http://www.library.manchester.ac.uk/academicsupport/informationandadviceonlink2listsreadinglistsoftware/</a>   0 0 173 There will be no on-campus contact hours and learning will take place fully online. Contact time – 27 hours